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South Africa’s rental market to continue in an upward trajectory into 2023
First time and mid-market home buyers have been most affected by the rise in interest rates with an increasing number of people opting to rent rather than to buy.
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While nothing like the global boom, South Africa’s housing market also experienced a post-pandemic boom in 2021 and 2022 in both volume (units sold) and value. Locally, the increase in prices was relatively muted, and given several years of single digit price increases (and decreases from year-earlier levels in real terms) SA’s housing market overall is unlikely to be overvalued and in bubble territory – although still vulnerable, to a degree, to a slowdown in activity.
According to Lightstone, total residential unit sales in SA declined by -0.35% in H1 2022 from year-earlier levels, while the volume of bonded sales dropped by -8.1%. In contrast, the value of sales rose by 2.0% (+R3bn).
While the total number of homes sold during H1 2022 was marginally lower than during the same period in 2021, it remained elevated (+13.1%) compared to the pre-Covid period during 2019. In contrast, the value of homes sold during Q1 2022 was higher than the same period in 2021 – presumably reflecting the fact that the second wave of home buying triggered by the pandemic was mainly fuelled by more affluent homeowners taking advantage of the low interest rate environment to purchase larger, freehold homes with more space (for those now working from home) or to semi grate to a coastal region.